UPI took the debit card's place. Pix grew beside it.
Two instant systems, two different relationships with the card.
Debit card payments with cards issued in the country, index 2019 = 100. BIS CPMI cashless statistics, card function: debit.
Evidence grade: A
Between 2019 and 2024 debit card payments in India fell from 4.95 billion to 1.74 billion, a drop of 65%, while UPI grew from 10.8 billion to 172 billion transactions. Over the same years in Brazil, debit card payments rose 51%, from 10.8 billion to 16.4 billion, while Pix went from launch to 63.4 billion. Mexico and Türkiye, with smaller instant systems, saw debit card use double and triple.
Credit card payments grew in both countries, by 114% in India and 108% in Brazil. The fall in India is specific to the debit card, the instrument that does the same job as a UPI payment from the same bank account. Where Pix took its volume from is harder to read in these series. Cash withdrawals in Brazil fell 43% between 2019 and 2024, yet they fell 47% in Sweden and 39% in Australia over the same years, so the decline in cash cannot be credited to Pix on this evidence alone.
Systems Over Signals